13-Week Cash Flow Forecast for Texas Small Businesses

Profit and cash are not the same thing. A business can report a profit while still facing a cash shortage. A 13-week cash flow forecast helps map when money is expected to arrive and leave, week by week, so timing issues can be reviewed before a payment date.

Thirteen weeks is a practical planning horizon: long enough to include a quarter of payroll runs, tax payments, and seasonal swings, while remaining short enough to update from current information.

Start from cash, not the P&L

A cash forecast begins with your actual combined bank balance today. From there you layer expected cash receipts and disbursements by week — not accruals, not invoices you hope to send, but money actually moving. Each week's ending balance becomes the next week's opening balance. That simple roll-forward is the whole engine.

The four swings that matter most in Texas

Payroll. Map your exact pay dates and amounts, including the weeks with three pay runs if you pay weekly. Payroll is the least flexible outflow you have.

Taxes. Block out estimated tax payment dates, sales-tax remittance, and the Texas franchise tax deadline. These are predictable and large — coordinate the amounts with your CPA, but put the dates on the calendar now.

Debt service. Loan and line-of-credit payments, equipment financing, and any balloon dates belong in the model so they never sneak up.

Collections. This is the variable one. Use your real days-sales-outstanding to time when invoiced revenue actually becomes cash — not when you billed it.

A simple template structure

You do not need expensive software — a clean spreadsheet works. Set up columns for the next 13 weeks and group rows into the categories below.

Red-flag thresholds to watch weekly

A forecast only helps if it triggers action. Set thresholds in advance: a warning when any week's ending balance drops below your operating cash buffer (often 4–8 weeks of fixed costs), a hard alert when projected cash turns negative in any week, and a watch flag when collections slip more than a week behind your normal pattern. When a flag trips, you have weeks of runway to act — pull forward collections, delay discretionary spend, or draw on a line — instead of days.

The one formula the whole model runs on

Strip away the rows and a 13-week forecast is a single line repeated thirteen times: beginning cash + expected receipts − expected disbursements = ending cash, and this week's ending cash becomes next week's beginning cash. Everything else is detail underneath those four terms.

Keeping the formula visible helps narrow a review. If ending cash looks wrong, start by checking whether opening cash ties to the bank, whether receipts are timed to expected collection dates, and whether disbursements are complete. Other classification or formula issues may also require review.

The weekly owner workflow

Pick a fixed day that fits the operating rhythm and run the same five steps every week. The time required will depend on transaction volume, the number of accounts, and the quality of the underlying records.

1. Tie out. Open the bank accounts and enter the actual combined balance as last week's true ending cash.

2. Enter actuals. Replace last week's forecast receipts and disbursements with what actually happened.

3. Reconcile the variance. Compare forecast to actual line by line and write one sentence explaining each meaningful gap (see below).

4. Roll forward. Add a new week 13 at the far end so the horizon stays a full quarter, and re-forecast the weeks in between using what you learned.

5. Decide. Look at the lowest projected balance in the window and name the action it calls for — or confirm that no action is needed this week.

Reconcile actual versus forecast — every week

Variance review is how the model is calibrated. Each week, put forecast and actual side by side for receipts and disbursements, and record the difference plus a short reason: a customer paid later than expected, an insurance renewal was missing from the model, or a deposit landed in a different week.

Over several updates, those notes may reveal recurring timing patterns. Feed supported patterns back into the assumptions so the forecast reflects recent operating information rather than remaining a one-time estimate.

Run a downside scenario alongside the base case

A single forecast line shows the base expectation. A second, more conservative line tests how cash could respond if assumptions weaken. Build the downside by changing defined assumptions: delay collections, hold new sales flat, keep committed outflows in place, and separately identify costs that may or may not flex.

Review the lowest projected ending cash in the thirteen weeks and when it appears. Compare that point with the operating cash buffer before considering a hire, equipment purchase, credit draw, collection action, or deferral of discretionary spending. The scenario supports the decision; it does not guarantee the outcome.

Ownership, and the decisions it should drive

Assign one person to prepare the weekly update and another person with decision authority to review it. Depending on the organization, preparation may sit with a bookkeeper or controller, while the owner or CEO evaluates the decisions. Write down both roles and the review day.

Then be explicit about what the model informs: whether to consider a hire this quarter, the timing of an equipment purchase, a possible distribution, whether to draw on or pay down a line of credit, and which collections need attention. The forecast is decision support, not a promise that cash will follow the projection.

The forecast is a living document. Regular maintenance and review can turn it from a one-time exercise into a useful early-warning process. Our free 13-week cash flow model gives you the row structure and a weekly update process.